On Christmas Eve, the small loyalist party Calédonie Ensemble brought down the local (and collegiate) government.
Institutions stipulate that when the representatives of a party represented in the government resign, the government falls. The pro-independence president, Louis Mapou, is therefore no longer president. The elected members of Congress have fifteen days to set up a new government.
Éveil Océanien holds the key
Neither of the two main political tendencies, pro-independence and loyalist, had a majority. It was L’Éveil Océanien, the small party of Wallisians and Futunians, which, three years ago, tipped the balance in favor of the independentists. L’Éveil Océanien’s philosophy is that the major trends should work together in the spirit of the institutions. That’s why it can work with any of them for, it says, the general interest. L’Éveil Océanien is often described as a kingmaker.
The May riots changed the game
Since the May riots, L’Éveil Océanien has decided to stop supporting the independentists. For their part, the loyalists, though very divided, seem to have regained a certain unity. This kind of non-independence coalition with L’Éveil Océanien should result in the election of a non-independence president to head the government. The majority of L’Éveil Océanien’s voters are not pro-independence, although there is a significant number who are difficult to quantify.
Elections on everyone’s mind
There are, of course, fundamental differences between loyalists and independentists, but that doesn’t explain everything. The elections to renew the members of Congress will take place within the year (between May and December). The big manoeuvres have already begun. And they’re not going to stop any time soon. May’s riots and the nickel crisis have not stopped elected officials from thinking about the next election… The question now is what the independentists’ response will be, as Caledonia tries, as best it can, to negotiate aid from the French state…
Photo: Louis Mapou, the pro-independence president, remained in office for three years. This is a record since the creation of the government twenty-five years ago.
